Category Archives: Marine Weather Forecasting

Deciphering Surface Weather Maps (Part Two)

In part one (click here), I introduced surface weather maps, meteorological time-keeping systems, the difference between Issued and Valid, and barometric pressure. In part two, we’ll look at the symbols and meteorological shorthand used on surface weather maps.

Pressure Patterns
The solid black lines winding across the country on the forecast map valid at 00Z on Thursday, February 23, 2017 (figure 1) are isobars, which are contours of constant sea level barometric pressure measured in millibars (mb). Isobars are typically drawn at 4 mb intervals on NWS maps and are labeled somewhere along the contour. The 1012 mb isobar, for example, starts northeast of the Bahamas and crosses the US coast near the border of Georgia and South Carolina (click here for annotated image). After heading west for a bit, the 1012 mb isobar makes a right turn and heads northeast parallel to the Appalachian Mountains. At any point along this isobar, sea-level pressure is forecast to be 1012 mb. Isobars allow forecasters to understand the overall pressure pattern and quickly identify areas of low and high pressure, along with other surface features such as troughs and ridges. Continue reading →

Deciphering Surface Weather Maps-Part One

Introduction
Surface weather maps offer a wealth of information to the weather-savvy boater. However, the key to unlocking the vast treasure of information displayed on these maps is understanding the terminology and symbols used by forecasters to portray current and future weather patterns. In this first installment of a two-part series, I’ll introduce surface maps, some key terminology, meteorological time systems, and barometric pressure.

Types of Surface Maps
Surface weather maps come in two varieties — analyses and forecasts. These two types of maps are very similar in appearance but their purpose is quite different. Analyses show recent surface weather observations and features (Figure 1) and are published every three hours by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) (http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/). The observations used to prepare these analyses such as temperature, dew point, barometric pressure, and wind speed/direction, are collected by thousands of automated weather stations across the country. These stations, which comprise the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS), are usually located at airports. Continue reading →

A Little Excitement on Race Night: August 24, 2016 on Lake St. Clair


Introduction
Whether it’s a beer can race or a top tier regatta, weather often adds a bit of excitement to sailboat racing.  This was particularly true for Windsor Yacht Club’s Wednesday night race on Lake St. Clair, held on August 24, 2016 (click here for a map). Not long after the 7:00 pm start, an unwarned cluster of thunderstorms rolled over the course, quickly producing 30 knot winds and torrential rain. Continue reading →

A Challenging Start to the 2016 Chicago-Mac

Introduction
Competing in the Chicago-Mac is never easy – after all, it is at least 333 statute miles to Mackinac Island. And by all accounts, the 108th running of Mac was unusually challenging. Light easterly winds on Saturday afternoon made progress toward the Island difficult for the racing fleet. The most significant challenge, however, appeared on Saturday evening, delivered by prolonged periods of thunderstorm activity. The storms repeatedly battered the fleet, hampering progress and prompting the withdrawal of several competitors due to minor crew injuries and equipment issues.

Light Winds Hinder Progress
By early Saturday afternoon, Lake Michigan was under the influence of a large area of high pressure centered just north of Lake Superior. This high was bisected by a stationary front originating from an area of low pressure near North Dakota and extending east across southern Lake Michigan (click here for surface analysis). This pattern resulted in light easterly winds across the southern half of Lake Michigan, impeding the progress of the racing and cruising fleets. Continue reading →

Doppler Weather Radar: It Isn’t Live But It’s Getting Better

Introduction
Doppler Weather Radar is your best defense against a hair-raising and wind-blown encounter with thunderstorms. The 155 stations in the National Weather Service’s (NWS) network provide overlapping, ground-based coverage of the nation’s inland and coastal boating areas. With an effective range of approximately 120 nautical miles, data from the NWS radar network is not accessible if you are well offshore. (Regardless of how you obtain your radar imagery, you are viewing NWS data as theirs is the only national radar network.)

Scanning The Atmosphere
Strong thunderstorms may be several miles high, and so the radar station must collect data from the Earth’s surface up into the upper reaches of the atmosphere in order to completely analyze the storm. Stations use a variety of scanning strategies, called Volume Coverage Patterns (VCP) to accomplish this goal. The antenna makes an initial, or base, scan by making one complete revolution at an elevation of 0.5° above the Earth’s surface, alternating between emitting and collecting backscattered energy pulses. When this base scan is complete, the antenna completes additional scans, repeatedly increasing the elevation by about one degree, until the highest elevation of the VCP is reached. The highest elevation scanned by NWS radar is 19.5°.
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Sloshing and Surfing on Lake Erie

Introduction
The marine forecast for Lake Erie on Saturday, June 27, 2015 suggested conditions were going to be unusually nautical for late June. Sustained northeasterly winds were likely to reach 35 knots, while gusts approaching 45 knots were possible. Significant wave heights were expected to reach 11 feet (click here for the wave forecast valid at 2 pm).

Figure 1: NWS wind speed and direction forecast for 2:00 pm on June 27, 2015. Click here for a larger version.
Figure 2: NWS wind gust forecast for 2:00 pm on June 27, 2015. Click here for a larger version.



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A New Spin on Waterspout Forecasting

Introduction
Several waterspouts, the intense columnar vortices considered “tornadoes over water”, have been reported across the Great Lakes over the past two weeks. Waterspouts come in two varieties – tornadic and fair weather—with the fundamental difference between them being the type of storm they are associated with, and the manner in which they form.
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Feeling The Pressure: The Value of A Barometer

Introduction
Every cruising boat should have a reliable barometer on board. Invented by Italian physicist and mathematician Evangelisata Rorricelli in 1643, a barometer helps a weather-wise boater stay abreast of developing weather patterns. The approach of a strong low pressure system with high winds, a squall line, or a hurricane is typically signaled by falling barometric pressure.  The steepness of the decline in pressure provides valuable insight into the strength of the approaching system. In contrast, rising barometric pressure usually heralds the arrival of fair weather and light winds. The ability to measure the rise and fall of barometric pressure only scratches the surface, however. What is barometric pressure, and what does it represent?
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Dramatic Differences: The Effects of Lake Temperature on Gusty Winds

Introduction
The Great Lakes — individually and collectively — play a significant role in the region’s weather. This is especially evident in the spring and early summer when cold lake waters promote the development of fog, suppress temperatures along the shore, and diminish the potential for strong thunderstorms offshore. One phenomenon of particular interest to sailors is the significant impact a relatively cold lake has on the wind well into the summer months.
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Bell’s Beer Bayview Mackinac Race Climatology

Introduction
Although the 2014 Bell’s Beer Bayview Mackinac Race is a less than two weeks away, it’s still too early for competitors to start working on their weather forecast. However, reviewing the long-term average conditions on Lake Huron during July is great way to set the stage for a weather forecast, particularly for those who are participating in the Race for the first time.

Wind and Wave Observations
The National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) maintains two floating discus bouys in Lake Huron. Buoy 45003 is located in the northern basin, while buoy 45008 is located in southern Lake Huron near the entrance to Saginaw Bay (click here for a map of Lake Huron).
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