Introduction
Several weeks ago, I published a summary of storm-force sustained winds, hurricane-force gusts, and a drop in water level approaching six feet across Lake Erie’s western basin, all courtesy of the passage of a deep low pressure system on November 27, 2019 (click here to read the summary). This article examines how the weather forecast models performed during the event. Continue reading
Category Archives: Forecast Models
Hurricane Force Winds on Lake Erie
Introduction
Wednesday, November 27, 2019 was a wild day on Lake Erie thanks to the passage of a deep low pressure system and its accompanying cold front. The surface forecasts issued by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) suggested the powerful and fast-moving low and its cold front would reach Lake Erie’s western basin around sunrise on the 27th (Figure 1) and the eastern end of Lake Ontario by early evening (click here for forecast graphic). Continue reading
Understanding Meteorological Time
Introduction
Weather recognizes no geographic or political borders. In order to coordinate their observations and forecasts, meteorologists around the world use a standard timekeeping system. The original standard timekeeping system was Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) a 24-hour clock system based on the local time in Greenwich, England. For example, 1:00 am in Greenwich is 0100 GMT, noon is 1200 GMT, and 6:00 pm is 18 GMT.
Since GMT is technically a time zone, it was replaced with Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) in the early 1970s. Similar to GMT, UTC is a 24-clock system that doesn’t recognize local adjustments such as Daylight Saving Time. The National Weather Service’s version of UTC is called Zulu, which is typically abbreviated as “Z” on their forecast maps and text products.
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Marine Model Output Statistics: A Unique Wind Forecasting Resource
Introduction
Sailors spend a lot of time analyzing wind forecasts, whether they’re planning a short afternoon sail, preparing for a regatta, or developing a strategy for a long-distance race. Most of this analysis relies on graphical forecast products, such as the wind speed and direction forecast for Lake Huron published by the National Weather Service shown below.
