Introduction
Several weeks ago, I published a summary of storm-force sustained winds, hurricane-force gusts, and a drop in water level approaching six feet across Lake Erie’s western basin, all courtesy of the passage of a deep low pressure system on November 27, 2019 (click here to read the summary). This article examines how the weather forecast models performed during the event. Continue reading
Category Archives: Forecast Models
Hurricane Force Winds on Lake Erie
Introduction
Wednesday, November 27, 2019 was a wild day on Lake Erie thanks to the passage of a deep low pressure system and its accompanying cold front. The surface forecasts issued by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) suggested the powerful and fast-moving low and its cold front would reach Lake Erie’s western basin around sunrise on the 27th (Figure 1) and the eastern end of Lake Ontario by early evening (click here for forecast graphic). Continue reading
Marine Model Output Statistics: A Unique Wind Forecasting Resource
Introduction
Sailors spend a lot of time analyzing wind forecasts, whether they’re planning a short afternoon sail, preparing for a regatta, or developing a strategy for a long-distance race. Most of this analysis relies on graphical forecast products, such as the wind speed and direction forecast for Lake Huron published by the National Weather Service shown below.
