Introduction
Weather doesn’t care about geographic or political boundaries. In order to produce an accurate forecast, weather forecast models need observations from every area of the globe. Fortunately, most countries with a national forecasting agency readily share their observations and forecasts with other nations. In order to more easily coordinate the timing of observations and forecasts, meteorologists around the world rely on a standard timekeeping system. Continue reading
Tornadoes & Waterspouts On Doppler Weather Radar
Introduction
A severe weather event along the Florida panhandle on January 9, 2024 brought 10 tornadoes (red circles) and many high wind reports (yellow circles) to the region. Continue reading
NDFD Forecast Data
A weather-savvy boater always begins their marine forecast with a review of the large-scale features. This strategy is a sound one because the weather we are concerned about – wind, waves, and thunderstorms – are associated with large-scale features such as highs, lows, and frontal boundaries. Continue reading
A Strong Cold Front Arrives
The much heralded cold front reached Lake Erie overnight. Wind quickly veered from southerly around 10 knots to westerly at 40 to 45 knots with the arrival of the front.
Weather Forecast Model 101 — Forecasting A High Wind Event
Introduction
Several weeks ago, I published a summary of storm-force sustained winds, hurricane-force gusts, and a drop in water level approaching six feet across Lake Erie’s western basin, all courtesy of the passage of a deep low pressure system on November 27, 2019 (click here to read the summary). This article examines how the weather forecast models performed during the event. Continue reading
Weather 101 – Thunderstorm Resources
Seasoned boaters know first-hand that weather conditions on the Great Lakes can change from pleasant to terrifying very quickly. From dangerous lightning to high winds, thunderstorms can ruin an outing in many ways. However, reading the marine forecast before leaving the dock and regularly checking weather radar along the way will dramatically increase your chances of avoiding uncomfortable or dangerous conditions. Continue reading
Hurricane Force Winds on Lake Erie
Introduction
Wednesday, November 27, 2019 was a wild day on Lake Erie thanks to the passage of a deep low pressure system and its accompanying cold front. The surface forecasts issued by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) suggested the powerful and fast-moving low and its cold front would reach Lake Erie’s western basin around sunrise on the 27th (Figure 1) and the eastern end of Lake Ontario by early evening (click here for forecast graphic). Continue reading
Lake Breeze Enhanced Thunderstorms
Introduction
Even when the atmosphere is supportive of thunderstorms, a source of lift is necessary to provide the upward motion required by a fledgling storm’s updraft. A reliable source of lift is often found near a cold, warm, or stationary front accompanying an approaching low pressure system (figure 1). Terrain or the leading edge of a downdraft from an existing thunderstorm (outflow boundary) can also provide a storm with this all-important ingredient. Continue reading
Clearing Up Clouds
Sailors have been watching clouds since the first boat was launched. As aficionados know, clouds come in an infinite variety of shapes and sizes. The overall shape of a cloud and the altitude where it forms help tell the story of current and short-term weather patterns.
Chaff on Radar?
Introduction
On the afternoon on December 10, 2018, an area of what initially appeared to be precipitation (Figure 1) was detected northwest of Evansville, Indiana by the National Weather Service (NWS) Doppler Weather Radar station at Paducah, Kentucky (KPAH). When first detected, the blob was 100 nm northeast of KPAH at an elevation of approximately 12,000 feet. A check of surface weather stations near the blob and visible satellite imagery (Figure 2) indicated that no precipitation was occurring and that skies were clear in the area.